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New Health Bill Is Forecast to Leave 15 Million More Uninsured Next Year

Mr. Cruz’s proposal was included in a version of the bill released last week, but it has been assailed by the insurance industry. While the provision was omitted from the latest version of the bill that was released on Thursday, it remains under consideration to be part of the repeal legislation, a Republican congressional aide said.The budget office released its analysis as Senate Republicans are struggling to keep alive their longtime goal of repealing the Affordable Care Act — and to settle on a strategy for achieving that aim. But its conclusions are not likely to help.The budget office did have good news about the latest version’s fiscal impact: it would reduce federal budget deficits by a total of $420 billion over 10 years, about $100 billion more than an earlier version of the legislation. The change resulted mainly from the fact that Senate leaders decided to keep two taxes on high-income people that would have been eliminated by the previous version of the Senate bill.How the Number of Uninsured Would ChangeThe increase in the number of uninsured is virtually the same under the initial and the revised versions of the proposed Senate Republican health plans.Senate repeal plan60 millionuninsuredInitial House billFinal House billRevised Senate plan50Initial Senate plan40Under theAffordableCare Act30201020172026Senate repeal plan60 millionuninsuredInitial House billFinal House billRevised Senate plan50Initial Senate plan40Under theAffordableCare Act30201020172026The latest version of the Senate bill would increase average insurance premiums by 20 percent next year, the budget office estimate, but it would reduce premiums after 2019, so that in 2026 premiums for a typical “benchmark plan” would be 25 percent lower than under current law.That is not all positive. One of the main reasons for the lower premiums is that the typical insurance plan would, according to the budget office, “pay for a smaller share of the total cost of covered benefits.” In other words, out-of-pocket expenses from deductibles and co-payments would grow.Moreover, the budget office said, even though average premiums for a standard benchmark plan would decline after 2019, many older people would face substantial increases in premiums.Newsletter Sign UpContinue reading the main storyThank you for subscribing.An error has occurred. Please try again later.You are already subscribed to this email.View all New York Times newsletters.For example, it said, the net premium — after tax credits — for a midlevel “silver plan” for a 64-year-old person with annual income of $26,500 would be $5,500 a year in 2026, or more than three times the amount projected under current law.The analysis detailed huge changes that the bill would impose on Medicaid, the health care program for low-income people and the disabled. […]